Let's talk about Luck and ARLS Formula

[Apoca1ypse]

Hey Apoc, I'd like to pick on Ahhnold because he's the only glad that we know at least a little about his luck (isn't bad...). All my weighted models put his luck pretty high. That's the case for three different formulas I've tried. Now did Nate say his luck isn't bad (as in it's pretty average)...or that his luck isn't bad (as in hey, pretty good!).

And is there anyone who has a glad and knows their cost and luck?

I asked what his luck was like, Nate said test for myself, I did some stuff, and reported to say that it seemed pretty good and Nate simply said " "

[Adoede]

Interesting...

According to my projections, I ran him with a few different "weighted" formulas and he came out like this:

Gladiator: Ahhnold
5-tier stat cost projection: 90.0 Luck
High Beta projection: 89.6 Luck
Low Beta projection: 89.9 Luck
(Beta measures the amount of deviation from the average...so in High Beta projection, size "weighs" more - Low Beta has less deviation)

Seem about right to you?

And what do you mean, "You did some stuff"?

[Alba Kebab]

Did a few tavern runs maybe? chance of picking up stuff in tavern do seem to be governed by luck.

Chance of gambling at street games does not, however.(as far as I can tell, so far)

[Apoca1ypse]

Interesting...

According to my projections, I ran him with a few different "weighted" formulas and he came out like this:

Gladiator: Ahhnold
5-tier stat cost projection: 90.0 Luck
High Beta projection: 89.6 Luck
Low Beta projection: 89.9 Luck
(Beta measures the amount of deviation from the average...so in High Beta projection, size "weighs" more - Low Beta has less deviation)

Seem about right to you?

And what do you mean, "You did some stuff"?

"stuff" included some tavern runs and fights. got a few fight tokens and item drops. Was still very early days for Ahhnold (~lvl 10) but he seemed somewhat lucky. As time has progressed, I've gome to see him as having average luck.

[Adoede]

The main things I see with my seemingly lucky glads is they get better rolls for learning skills faster and consistently get a lot more arena tokens doing taverns and conquests. Did Ahhnold seem pretty lucky in that regard? I can't seem to come up with a version of the formula that gives him anything worse than an 85+ luck score. My glads who have similar estimated luck get at least 2-3 arena tokens every time they do the 20 tavern quests. Does that happen with Ahhnold?

Also, with the higher levels of the game, luck seems to play less of a role in the fights because skills are so dominant by then...which makes sense. My "lucky" glads who seemed to pull victory out of thin air pretty regularly in the Primus and below game had a much much harder time doing that in blood gods.

[Apoca1ypse]

Any luck he may have is mitigated by how I run him, but he did seem lucky early on.

I dont do tavern runs that much so I have no idea if he gets extra fight tokens. He does get more than either Bruce when doing arena fights though.

[Cynaidh]

Follow up on the glad i bought, so far with tavern runs have seen between 2-7 each day extra fight tokens.

[Adoede]

Yowzers! 2-7 fight tokens is a ton! That glad is at the top of the list of luck in nearly every simulation I run.

[Apoca1ypse]

I think you get increased token drops at lower levels. I remember winning a heap more when I last leveled up a glad.

[Adoede]

Crow, Narol and Cynaidh, as promised if you PM me an email address (you can just create a random one if you want privacy) I'll send you my latest data and calculators on figuring luck. It includes three different projections and an average of the three so you can get a relative idea of how a prospect's luck might turn out. Even if it just gives a range, that is still pretty useful I've found.

And Crow, I'll pm Nate right now about joining your team if you'll do the same when you have a moment. Peace!