Let's talk about Luck and ARLS Formula

[Adoede]

That's certainly a possibility. If each stat is weighted differently, then yes...this is totally off. Still...if we can get more data, perhaps we can say with more certainty whether this is a strong theory or not.

If each stat really is weighted differently, then the luck scores should be all over the place (some over 100, some in the 20's etc...) But the luck scores come out pretty much where you'd expect if they were a regular stat alongside the 7 other stats. That's what makes this formula interesting...

If not, the joke's on me since I use this to help select my glads...either way, pretty fun to try to figure this stuff out, eh? And honestly, this at least gives me some way to evaluate a glad's possible luck rather than the total "leave it to chance" I had to live with before. I'm convinced enough to have peace of mind in selecting glads.

[Pit Lord]

We don't even know if luck is connected with other stats or it is a separate random roll. In case it is connected with the other stats we have to keep in mind the different stats weight differently.

size >> stamina > strength, agility, intellect >> presence, chi

We can see this trend both on the items and slaves available in the game.

Presence and chi are "cheap" stats while size is the most "expensive" (special stat). Stamina seems to be little more expensive than the other 3 main stats.

Lets assume luck is connected with other stats.
Now lets assume we have 2 imaginary gladiators and compare them:
Both gladiators cost the same and have the same "visible" stat summary:
Gladiator 1 80-80-80-80-90-70-80
Gladiator 2 80-80-80-70-80-80-90
Gladiator 1 has more points in the "expensive" stats size and stamina while gladiator 2 has more points in the "cheap" stats presence and chi. Therefore we can expect Gladiator 2 to have more luck than Gladiator 1 (a lot more in this particular case) because his other stats are "cheaper" and both gladiators have the same price.

And if you observe Ahhnold performance you can indeed believe luck is connected with the other stats.

[Kreegan]

Actually Intellect is as expensive as Stamina, if not even more.
Luck seems to be on a par with Strength/Agility when it comes to "price", judging from the extra Luck provided by certain items.

[Adoede]

All very good points, Pit Lord, and things I've thought about too. (Although that point about Ahhnold is a bit harsh...I think it's more a function of his style and weapon and balancing issues in the game. Otherwise all other expensive glads would have the same problem...)

I did initially think that your scenario was how luck would have been figured in the game too. That's why I didn't bother trying to figure it out until one day I just decided to start tracking my HOL prospects to see if there were any trends I could figure. The formula seemed to work. And then, I was quite surprised by the seeming accuracy of the formula in matching what I expected the luck scores to be for my active glads.

Again, if the stats are weighted differently, I would expect the formula to come up with some luck scores that are just totally illogical. If Strength was worth 2 gp each and Chi was worth only 1 gp each, for example, then that should wreak havoc on the results from the formula if the glad had high strength and low chi and we should have some luck scores waaay too high or waaay too low to be possible. That would discredit the formula straight away. But through my ~100 trials and Cynaidh's 400 it has consistently given reasonable values for luck. Just look at Oedi's values in his response to the thread above. Those are very reasonable values and an "authentic-feeling" spread. I'm not saying this formula is guaranteed to be right...but the circumstantial evidence is pretty compelling.

Truth is, we can't know for sure if the formula is accurate unless we have 2 identical glads who cost different amounts (which we'll never have).

[Cynaidh]

Cynaidh - Great to see you run with this formula like that. Care to share the rest of his stats and keep us updated if you notice signs of luck on that glad (Lots of extra arena tokens from tavern runs, etc...) Oh, and did you keep that data from the 400 prospects you passed up? I'd love to add the numbers to my post (how many under 50, between 50-59, 60-69, 70-79, 80-89, 90+)

Hmm i didn't write them all down, i saw values from 70-94 which seemed right for HoL Slaves.

The one i kept wasn't the best over all stats but i want to try it:

85-77-82-87-88-73-60 cost 1127

Plan is a shield using KO theatrics, want to see if the luck helps the KO rate, something like:

blade, shield, called shot, crowd pleaser, GV, armor move, hamstring, ko, surprise ending, bloody spectacle

[Apoca1ypse]

Firstly, its really cool that you've done this I think this is the first proper attempt anyone has made for working out luck.

Nate has said that some stats are weighted differently in slave prices, size being the main one. I dont know if he has stated that some other stats are also weighted differently though. However, while size is weighted differently, at least having a metric to guestimate a bit more accurately is nice


As for Ahhnold, ignore him from any studies. TBH I dont actually know how much he cost, I just know that it was 1170+. I spoke with Nate about him and was told that his luck isnt bad. As far as I can tell, his luck is average. I've run a hell of a lot of 2H ragers (7?), and he doesnt feel unlucky compared to the others. In regards to not being a top 10 glad with his stats, that is very much a function of his style, compared to anything else. I just really dont want to run him with a pair of axes.

[Apoca1ypse]

hmm, I merely assumed people were talking about Ahhnold as the glad with less than 35 luck. by your metric and a cost of 1170, Ahhnold has 77 luck.

Bruce Willis has 96 luck apparently, but it certainly doesnt feel like it. He does have 100 size though, and that will certainly play a part there.

[Adoede]

The one i kept wasn't the best over all stats but i want to try it:

You are bold, my friend. BOLD!

Honestly, I love how you play the game - willing to try random things for the uniqueness of the experience and to test your theories. You're cool in my book!

[Adoede]

Nate has said that some stats are weighted differently in slave prices, size being the main one. I dont know if he has stated that some other stats are also weighted differently though. However, while size is weighted differently, at least having a metric to guestimate a bit more accurately is nice

Thanks for this, Apoc. It seems Pit Lord is right after all. Do you remember what else Nate said about the slave prices? Is there a link to the thread? Did he say anything about higher stats costing more than lower stats? For example, a stat in the 80's costing more in average than a stat in the 60's?

I agree that the formula is still helpful - you just have to be mindful of how the "weightier" stats might be skewing your final result. Thus the 96 luck score for Bruce Willis might accidently incorporate the higher cost of a 100 size glad - skewing the result higher than should be the case.

So:
1) Use the formula to get an initial luck estimate
2) If size is high, expect your actual luck to be a bit lower (because weightier cost of size boosts some of that gold cost that's attributed to luck)
3) If sta and int are high, expect your actual luck to be a bit lower
4) If str and agi are high, luck score should be about right
5) If pres and chi are high, actual luck is probably higher

You guys get the picture.

So Big tall Wars with lots of Size and Stamina might be skewed higher in the formula than is the case.

p.s. - really, int is weighted heavier than strength and agility?

[Adoede]

The closest I've come to identical glads is this:

Seraph Mertrell - 70 78 98 75 78 81 73 (553 base stat points) Gold Cost: 1098 gp
Seraph Mursi ---- 76 75 98 75 81 80 66 (551 base stat points) Gold Cost: 1076 gp (just retired)

According to our theories so far, if they both had equal luck, Mursi should have cost more because of higher size, higher strength, and lower chi and presence. (he does have slightly higher intelligence, but the balance of things suggest he cost more overall). But actually, Mertrell cost quite a bit more than Mursi suggesting a higher luck score for Mertrell.

Here are their current records:
Mertrell - 1057 wins, 817 losses = 56.4% winrate, 1874 total fights
Mursi - 933 wins, 917 losses = 50.4% winrate, 1850 total fights

In reality, Mertrell seems waaaay more lucky than Mursi ever was. They were nearly identical builds - both speed theatrics with exotics (claws) and the same skills except Mursi had SOTC instead of SE - not much of a difference factor for speed glads. But look at how much better Mertrell has fared than Mursi. That is perhaps partially attributable to better luck.
- Mertrell got tons more arena tokens than Mursi in the beginning and got to level 50 long before Mursi did
- Mertrell just fights "luckier" and his record shows it.

So, if I had to guess, I'd say luck does seem to factor into a glad's market price.