Let's talk about Luck and ARLS Formula

[Adoede]

It's time for me to make a contribution to the community.

From my experience, here are some of the benefits a high luck score can bring:
1) You learn skills faster - even with lower intelligence
2) You get more arena tokens from your fights...so you advance in the game faster (and have a better rating in blood gods)
3) You seem to get more item drops in tavern quests and conquest battles
4) You pick up your weapon if disarmed faster
5) You have better initiative rolls at the beginning of fights
6) You have a better chance of scoring a knockout
7) You are better at using your defensive skills at the most opportune times (like surprise ending)
8) You simply fight better

And perhaps many more benefits you all can share about that I've missed.

I had a chance to track the stat points / cost of about 100 HOL prospects recently and I found a way to measure the relative Luck stat of each Glad.

This is Adoede's Relative Luck Score Formula (ARLS Formula for short )

(Total Gold Cost / 1.75) - Total Base Stat Points = ARLS

You get your base stat points by adding all 7 of your known stat values together.
So, if you're Arrrrrghpirate and have 570 base stat points at a cost of 1155 gp:
(1155/1.75) - 570 = ~ a 90 luck score (the highest I've ever seen, btw)

I tracked 96 HOL prospects using this formula and this is how the data broke down:

96 Total
<50 Luck: 1 glad = 1%
50-59 Luck: 24 glads = 25%
60-69 Luck: 34 glads = 35%
70-79 Luck: 25 glads = 26%
80-89 Luck: 11 glads = 12%
90+ Luck: 1 glad = 1%

That is a nice bell curve if you ask me. Incidentally, the lowest score recorded was a 35...a total outlier since the 2nd lowest was a 51. And as I said before, the highest was 90.

My glads with high luck all do better in the arena. But I've noticed that luck seems to benefit offensive glads more than defensive ones. Meaning a defensive glad can get by with a middling luck score and be fine. Offensive glads have a harder time with lower luck. I think this has to do with the consistency of a defensive glads fighting style and tactics whereas offensive glads fighting styles vary from fight to fight.

Now, this is all based on my subjective observations so I could be totally off...but I think the ability to judge the relative luck score of glads can be helpful in deciding if a particular glad is the one you've been looking for or not.

Edit: Also, there are lots of gear pieces in blood gods that boost luck, so a gladiator with a middling score in luck is not at a huge disadvantage in the end-game...just in case some of you are tempted to dump your rosters like I was when I worked this out!

Chime in and share your experiences with Luck!

[oedi]

This was very interesting, so I had to test your formula. Im very happy now that Ive named so many of my glads after their gold cost

1118 estimated luck 94 maybe I should consider bringing him back from retirement retired
1141 estimated luck 92 active in blood gods
1011 estimated luck 87 always suspected he was a very lucky glad retired
1122 estimated luck 83 active in blood gods
1109 estimated luck 83 active in blood gods
1021 estimated luck 81 retired
1017 estimated luck 76 retired
1128 estimated luck 75 brand new recruit
0980 estimated luck 69 retired
0981 estimated luck 68 retired
1131 estimated luck 67 brand new recruit
1077 estimated luck 67 retired

[Kreegan]

What we certainly know that lucky gladiators have generally better performance than the unlucky ones, if they are otherwise evenly matched. What we don't know is what does exactly Luck do. My bet is that it improves your chances for certain positive events during a fight and maybe it decreases the chances for some negative events. I doubt that it acts outside of a battle - item drops for instance (I've not seen any better loot during tavern or conquest quests than usual no matter the Luck increase).

[Cynaidh]

Wow I am currently looking for a slave for AB Gold, going to have to get my calc out now

[Prinny]

Im just going to be the ass here.
Nice that you have spent your time in making this and thank you for your efforts, however:

How exactly did you figure out the luck stats wre possible to calculate like this? Exactly what is the formula based on as we all know that you can't see actual luck stats.

35 as a stat is low even for normal glads and I have rarely seen a stat at the 40-45 range, hence I believe there is without a doubt something wrong with the formula.

I have always believed (and still do) that everything in this game is based on rolls just like the ones you see at skill/attribute trains.
I think luck modifies the chances for a roll to be required EG: Your 9 or under roll to train becomes a 9,5 or under roll and so on.

[Adoede]

Sure Prinny,

Here's how I came up with the formula. I figured there must be a relationship between the luck stat and a gladiator's cost. And we know the gold cost and the seven other stats. Thus the only variables were the luck stat and how much each stat point is worth in gold. I just assumed all stat points cost the same for this model.

At this point I had a basic formula from simple algebra. Gold cost divided by stat worth needed to equal the total stat points. First, I tried assigning a stat cost of 2 gp to the formula, but the luck scores seemed too low. Then I tried 1.5 and they were too high. The best balance I found was at 1.75 - which is why I went with that value.

Now, of course, stats in the 90's might cost more than stats in the 60's, and if so the model breaks down. But two things: 1) When I compared luck scores with the perceived luck of my glads, it matched up well. And 2) even if the formula is off by a bit, it is still valuable for letting you see relative estimated luck vs. other glads and prospects.

The reason I did this was because it takes so long to get an HOL glad that I wanted to be somewhat confident the luck score was at least decent before I committed - I'm sure you all can relate to that feeling and the related frustration of having a glad with great stats who just seems to have bad luck.

As for the 35 low score - yeah, that threw me off too. But that was the only one. And since the rest of the data matched so well with what would be expected, I figured it really was just a TERRIBLE luck roll. After all, I have seen some stats in the 30's for other stats before.

I wasn't going to share all this at first - just because it is my guess and based on a small sample size of 96 glads...and so I could use it for my own advantage. But, I figured it would be more fun to spark this community to collaborate on these types of insights in other areas too. This game is very competitive, but that doesn't mean it can't be a warm community as well. With strategies and gearing options galore, there is plenty to keep things competitive and tip one's hat to managers who are able to consistently be on top.

[Alba Kebab]

Im very happy now that Ive named so many of my glads after their gold cost

So that's what the number names of Oedi's glads meant? OMG, to think I always thought they were code for himself instead of something so obvious!

To the topic:
Nice post Adoede, especially with all the efforts put into crunching numbers.
Lemme sit down and take notes.

[Cynaidh]

Honestly it seems to work, I just went threw about 400 HOL Slaves, and spot checked them with this formula, and it gave me the results i was expecting to see based off there cost vs visible stats never once was there an off the wall luck number. Ended up grabbing one that calculated out to having a 91-92 luck score, so will see how lucky the glad is.

[Adoede]

Oedi - wow...your glads have great luck scores! I wondered if people could get higher than 90 luck with this formula...now I know they can.

Cynaidh - Great to see you run with this formula like that. Care to share the rest of his stats and keep us updated if you notice signs of luck on that glad (Lots of extra arena tokens from tavern runs, etc...) Oh, and did you keep that data from the 400 prospects you passed up? I'd love to add the numbers to my post (how many under 50, between 50-59, 60-69, 70-79, 80-89, 90+)

And to comment on Luck - there are lots of gear pieces in blood gods that boost luck, so a relatively middling luck score is not necessarily a huge handicap in the end-game. Has anyone tried to boost luck really high and what effects did you see?

[Pit Lord]

I think you are totally off . Every base stat weight is different. The whole thread is a joke I hope.